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Coronavir.org

Site de veille et d'information sur le nouveau coronavirus SARS-COV-2 et la maladie associée COVID-19

Actualités et recherches en cours

Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and serial interval statistics during early stages...

Proactive management of an Infodemic that grows faster than the underlying epidemic is a modern-day challenge. This requires raising awareness and sensitization with the correct information in order to prevent and contain outbreaks such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, there is a fine balance between continuous awareness-raising by providing new information and the risk of misinformation. In this work, we address this gap by creatin...

A proactive approach to raise awareness while preventing misinformation is a modern-day challenge in all domains including healthcare. Such awareness and sensitization approaches to prevention and containment are important components of a strong healthcare system, especially in the times of outbreaks such as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. However, there is a fine balance between continuous awareness-raising by providing new information and the ...

The COVID-19 has infected more than 462,000 people globally and resulted in over 20,000 deaths as of March 26, 2020. Swift government response to contain the outbreak requires accurate and continuous census of the infected population, particularly with regard to viral carriers without severe symptoms. We take on this task by converting the symptom onset time distribution, which we calibrated, into the percentage of the latent, pre-symptomatic a...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), has infected more than 170,000 people globally and resulted in over 6,000 deaths over a three-month period. Contrary to mainstream views, there is growing literature on pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contributing significantly to the disease outbreak. Several recent studies on serial infection yielded a mean interval of around 4 days, shorter than the mean symptom onset time of 5-7 days, an...

We study the datafor the cumulative as well as daily number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak in China. The cumulative data can be fit to an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model studied on an Euclidean network previously. Plotting the number of cases against the distance from the epicenter for both China and Italy, we find an approximate power law variation with an exponent $\sim 1.85$ showing strongly that th...

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has uncovered the potential of digital misinformation in shaping the health of nations. The deluge of unverified information that spreads faster than the epidemic itself is an unprecedented phenomenon that has put millions of lives in danger. Mitigating this Infodemic requires strong health messaging systems that are engaging, vernacular, scalable, effective and continuously learn the new patterns of misinforma...

This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified process model is derived to support the controllability analysis, highlighting the presence of very significant time delay; the model is validated with data from several outbreaks. The analysis shows that su...

COVID-19 has infected more than 823,000 people globally and resulted in over 40,000 deaths as of April 1, 2020. Swift government response to contain the outbreak requires accurate and continuous census of the infected population, particularly with regards to viral carriers without severe symptoms. We take on this task by converting the symptom onset time distribution, which we calibrated, into the percentage of the latent, pre-symptomatic and s...

This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified process model is derived to support the controllability analysis, highlighting the presence of very significant time delay; the model is validated with data from several outbreaks. The analysis shows that su...

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